Choosing the problem is the most important decision a product team makes. Yet most corporate processes spend 90% of their time on execution and 10% on choice.
The three-lens framework
When I evaluate an opportunity, I look at it through three lenses:
1. Pain intensity. How many people suffer from this problem, and how intensely?
2. Frequency. Is it a daily or occasional problem? Daily problems have intrinsically higher economic value.
3. Current alternative. What does the user do today to work around the problem? If the alternative is already “good enough”, the marginal value of your product is low.
The matrix
I cross these three variables in a simple matrix: pain × frequency, with circle size proportional to the quality of the current alternative (larger = worse alternative = bigger opportunity).
It’s not science, but it forces the team to make assumptions explicit rather than leaving them implicit.